Guild Wars 2: PvP Season - How Many Matches?

The PvP Season ends in about two days. A bit late to make the post now. Luckily you know for the next season! But...

Why Should I Play the PvP Season?

Like the World vs World skirmish reward chests/tracks or however you want to call them, the PvP season also has season rewards next to the usual reward tracks. We've got 6 reward chests which reward Shards of Glory, Unidentified Dyes, Transmutation Charges, Silver and Gold as well as PvP League Tickets and Ascended Shards of Glory in each last chest per tier. Additionally the last 3 tiers (persimmon, amaranth, and Byzantium) reward Boxes of Grandmaster Marks, which contain the tokens required for ascended gear. Oh and the all beloved Llama Mini Choice Box from the last chest. The last chest is also repeatable with lower rewards.

Completing all the chests without repetition rewards you with:

• 560 Shards of Glory
• 34 Unidentified Dyes
• 83 gold 85 silver
• 44 Transmutation Charges
• 100 PvP League Tickets
• 400 Ascended Shards of Glory
• 3 Boxes of Grandmaster Marks
• 1 Llama Mini Choice Box

Alright, let's go! So...

What Does It Take?

To get through all the chests without repeating the last one it takes 670 pips. Pips are awarded for each match and differ depending on several factors like in WvW but a little bit different here. The factors are:

• Winning / Losing the match
• At least one top stat
• Close match
• Division

If you win a game you get ten pips if you lose you get three pips. Having at least one top stat awards an extra pip. If you lose the game but you were close to winning, you're awarded two extra pips. Also depending on which division you play in you may get two to four extra pips. That's two pips for platinum and four pips for legendary.

Simple Maths

Since we can't say whether or not we win the match or how the match will be going we need to calculate with a range assuming the worst and best-case scenario. Something we can do, however, is calculated for each division we play in.

For lower than platinum division we get three to eleven pips each match. Requiring to get 670 pips that means we need between 670 / 3 = 223.33 and 670 / 11 =  60.91 matches. So 61 to 224 matches.

Playing in the platinum division will earn you five to 13 pips each match. With the requirement of 670 pips in this division we need 670 / 5 = 134 to 670 / 13 = 51.54 matches. That's 52 to 134 matches.

As a player of the legendary division, the reward will be from seven to 15 pips each match. These players will still need 670 pips but only 670 / 7 = 95.71 to 670 / 15 = 44.67  matches. This is only 45 to 96 matches.

On the other hand, if we assume the 50-50 rule works as intended we expect to win 50% of our matches and losing the other 50% as it should be. Then we expect to get 3 * 50% + 10 * 50% = 6.5  pips each match without the extra pips. So between 6.5 on average. In the best case, we would get 1 extra pip always and 2 pips from the close one if we lose. So it's 6 * 50% + 11 * 50% = 8.5 pips now.

Going with this we have between 670 / 6.5 = 103.08 and 670 / 8.5 = 78.82 or 79 and 104 matches for players below platinum division.

For the platinum division itself, we just need to add 2 to both our numbers. That means we get 670 / 8.5 = 78.82 to 670 / 10.5 = 63.81 or 64 to 79 matches for players in the platinum division.

And last but not least we have the legendary division who now only need 670 / 10.5 = 63.81 to 670 / 12.5 = 53.6 so 54 to 64 matches.

What About Time Consumption?

Calculating the time consumption is kinda difficult as it differs from each time you play in. Though you can take the average duration of each match and multiply this with the number of matches you need, I want to keep that calculation for another post. If you want you can see this as homework and the next post as a solution to that homework, heh. :P

Daily Matches 

I always do similar calculations to this when a new season starts to check out how many daily matches I need to complete the season in the end. Same like I did with the Wintersday achievements. 

This season started on the 7th of November and ends on the 1st January according to the wiki or 2nd January according to my in-game PvP interface. That's 56 days. We know how many matches we need so let's go down the list:

Non-expected range lower than platinum:

61 / 56 = 1.09 to 224 / 56 = 4: win 1-2 matches a day or lose 4 matches a day

Non-expected range in the platinum division:

52 / 56 = 0.93 to 134 / 56 = 2.39: win 1 match almost every day or lose 3.

Non-expected range in the legendary division:

45 / 56 = 0.80 to 96 / 56 =  1.71: win 1 match or lose 2 matches a day.

Expected range lower than platinum:

 79 / 56 = 1.41 to 104 / 56 = 1.86: win up to 2 matches or lose up to 2 matches each day.

Expected range in the platinum division:

64 / 56 = 1.14 to 79 / 56 = 1.41: win 2 matches each day or lose 2 matches.

Expected range in the legendary division:

54 / 56 = 0.96 to 64 / 56 =  1.14: win 1 match or lose a little bit more than 1 match a day.

As you can see, a win a day is a safe way to get through the season.